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Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
You're wrong. A self-selected sample is a non-random sample, even if you can't pinpoint a specific way in which self-selection might screw the results. The entire point of random sampling is that you can't determine the exact mechanism by which self selection biases the results. If you don't understand this, then there's really no point discussing this.


So, thought experiment time:

You have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You then ask anyone who feels like it to come forward, and flip their coin. I would expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you? Remember, this is one of those scary self-selected samples.

Next, you have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You tell them all to flip their coin, and use a magic marker to put a mark on the face that lands up, without looking at the result. You then ask whoever feels like it to come forward, and show you their coin. I would still expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you?

Since people who don't know if they can channel don't know how strong they are going to be, the last thought experiment is equivalent to the situation with the novices.
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2692 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 654 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 905 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1015 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 956 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 687 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 981 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1182 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1020 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1069 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1042 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1037 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 957 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 905 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 993 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 578 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1090 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 799 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1113 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 863 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 944 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 892 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 946 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 900 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 952 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 901 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 830 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 831 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 846 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 898 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 898 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 791 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 911 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 879 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 933 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 989 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 691 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 928 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 824 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 867 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 867 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 786 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 770 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 766 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 949 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 720 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 860 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 955 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 726 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 829 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 749 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 763 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 744 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 869 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 861 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 759 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 808 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 785 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 789 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 819 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1163 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 833 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 903 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 825 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 801 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 771 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 767 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 785 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 782 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 817 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 820 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 842 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 791 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 775 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 737 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 741 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 881 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 749 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 806 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 761 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 890 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 746 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 783 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 747 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 699 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 891 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 739 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 834 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 752 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 699 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 788 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1318 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 767 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 795 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 777 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 849 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 793 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 821 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 794 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 758 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 846 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 721 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 758 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 784 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 802 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 827 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 777 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 771 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 773 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 920 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 903 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 570 Views

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