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But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
You're wrong. A self-selected sample is a non-random sample, even if you can't pinpoint a specific way in which self-selection might screw the results. The entire point of random sampling is that you can't determine the exact mechanism by which self selection biases the results. If you don't understand this, then there's really no point discussing this.


So, thought experiment time:

You have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You then ask anyone who feels like it to come forward, and flip their coin. I would expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you? Remember, this is one of those scary self-selected samples.

Next, you have a thousand people, all of which have a coin. You tell them all to flip their coin, and use a magic marker to put a mark on the face that lands up, without looking at the result. You then ask whoever feels like it to come forward, and show you their coin. I would still expect roughly the same number of heads and tails, but would you?

Since people who don't know if they can channel don't know how strong they are going to be, the last thought experiment is equivalent to the situation with the novices.


Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3235 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 942 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1136 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1442 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1610 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1091 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1372 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1727 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1383 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1465 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1424 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1436 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1399 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1291 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1454 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 850 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1513 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1258 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1623 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1210 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1354 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1319 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1334 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1414 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1360 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1440 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1352 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1321 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1240 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1292 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1281 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1207 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1339 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1300 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1519 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1389 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1387 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1598 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1143 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1244 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1387 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1162 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1169 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1159 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1362 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1135 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1266 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1340 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1131 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1376 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1108 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1148 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1101 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1391 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1258 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1153 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1396 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1215 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1235 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1206 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1666 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1238 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1323 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1185 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1192 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1188 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1295 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1136 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1175 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1170 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1317 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1344 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1164 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1135 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1133 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1134 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1390 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1125 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1186 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1189 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1387 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1096 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1215 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1167 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1189 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1302 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1145 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1170 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1145 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1092 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1164 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1819 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1250 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1277 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1163 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1360 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1189 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1334 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1202 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1148 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1329 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1284 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1168 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1265 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1188 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1208 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1143 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1167 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1170 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1309 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1359 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 840 Views

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