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LOL darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM
Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.


Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.

And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.

Edit:

My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.


I love that you did the math :P

Fact remains, despite how slim the chances, even without ANY other variation the potential for the 1000 novices to be weak exists. Those odds begin to change when you add in variants like genetic culling of the ability that may have occurred in the region and who knows what other factors. It could be as simple as the region recently underwent the terror of a rampaging False Dragon in Logain and women who would not normally think to become AS suddenly had an opportunity in front of them and went to investigate.

I disagree with DomA on a few points such as AS not awakening the ability in those too weak to become AS. From what we know on the male side, the test itself awakens the ability. In which case the AS would be stuck with even the weak women for several months at the very least. This also seems likely when we look at the Sul'dam, these are women who are on the brink of Channeling but have not yet done so and thus AS cannot feel the ability in them. For all we know there could have been 10,000 women who came to sign up, but only 1000 had any ability at all.

Further, if you look to the Black Tower as an example of voluntary recruits, we've seen some men who went there already had a good feeling that the ability was in them, like Grady and Almaragin (the Tairen lord) who each had male relatives who had could Channel and have proven to be rather Strong. Then look at Androl, who went out of simple curiosity, and he turns out to be very weak. It's possible many women in the 1000 Novices were driven to sign up because very recently they were in the path of Logain and they wanted both a sense of security and a sense of purpose but didn't "feel" the Power in themselves and like Androl they had a small level of ability. Others, like Sharina, had no real reason for leaving established lives (with huge conflicts in fact) and may well have "felt" the Power in themselves and took the opportunity to join. Sort of like having a "Calling" v. a "Vocation"

In the end there are many reasons Egwene could have picked up so many too weak women, but if we were to look at a formalized recruitment that gathered EVERY woman (spark or no-spark) who could channel from EVERY region of the world the 62.5% would be true. I believe that's meant to illustrate both AS ineffectiveness as well as light a path for the future of the WoT world post-TG and perhaps show us what things were like in the AoL. Millions of Channelers with varied abilities who could accomplish more together than they could separately.

Egwene has shown us flashes of what she intends with this throughout the series. She clearly wants to unify the Channeling groups and open up recruitment policies even further.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3282 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 967 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1170 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1464 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1666 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 1111 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1408 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1767 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1412 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1496 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1438 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1452 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1427 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1317 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1483 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 880 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1538 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1298 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1659 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1226 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1387 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1350 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1363 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1459 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1387 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1479 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1385 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1366 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1269 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1318 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1302 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1229 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1365 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1329 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1573 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1418 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 1450 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1648 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 1160 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1271 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1439 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1185 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1198 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1188 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1391 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1160 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1294 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1364 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 1161 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1414 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 1135 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1173 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 1125 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1422 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1286 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1177 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1441 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1241 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1261 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1229 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1708 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1268 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1349 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1215 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1216 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1216 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1337 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 1162 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1194 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1197 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1357 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1385 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1188 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 1158 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 1160 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 1157 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1430 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 1150 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1202 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1210 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1429 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 1121 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1238 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 1190 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 1218 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1325 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 1171 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1199 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 1168 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 1118 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1182 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1857 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1305 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1320 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1183 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1399 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1213 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1373 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1224 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1178 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1372 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1319 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1191 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1289 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1214 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1231 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1161 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1191 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1185 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1328 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1411 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 864 Views

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