Active Users:951 Time:02/11/2025 02:58:59 AM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
Excellent point. fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM
This validates my point (which you have completely disagreed with before) that Aes Sedai make a terrible random sampling. They're a very skewed sample, and the best example of that is the 1000 novices Egwene's proclamation brings.


RJ said that 62.5% of women were strong enough to become Aes Sedai, yet only 20% of Egwene's 1000 novices are strong enough. What possible explanation could there be for this enormous bias?


Look at the TR for instance. We've seen many more uber-channelers come from that tiny region and a much higher % that would be expected from such a small region. Dozens of men and women have been picked up by both Towers from the TR and they are ALL strong enough to be AS.

You are both trying to apply a total population % to isolated regional variations and tiny populations of the overall channeling pool.
Reply to message
The Bell Curve revisited Shannow - 29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM 1602 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited Tor - 29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM 977 Views
That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM 1562 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM 955 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:40:27 AM 821 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:42:57 AM 803 Views
Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:45:07 AM 903 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:49:49 AM 804 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:56:37 AM 886 Views
It's only as skewed as it seems when you make the assumption that the Forsaken darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 04:34:11 AM 1123 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM 898 Views
Response to a few of your poorly researched points... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:31:17 PM 843 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM 840 Views
Exactly... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:39:30 PM 836 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM 853 Views
Excellent point. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM 893 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this Tor - 29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM 801 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM 775 Views
Re: Again I don't argue that genetics play no role Tor - 30/10/2012 07:07:17 AM 792 Views
I don't think it plays much role in the plot darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:17:55 PM 940 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM 806 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM 740 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength? Tor - 29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM 753 Views
Absolutely no reason... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM 846 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason... Tor - 30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM 756 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM 842 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random. Tor - 30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM 768 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM 775 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! Tor - 30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 776 Views
Go read a stats text will you? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM 762 Views
Done Tor - 31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM 1532 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM 1046 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM 870 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 11/11/2012 07:14:48 PM 725 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:33:59 PM 1545 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM 1102 Views
Seriously? I went and looked at some statistics books, and you won't even reply? Tor - 01/11/2012 12:13:49 PM 880 Views
Still nothing? Tor - 10/11/2012 03:33:15 PM 866 Views
Still doesn't explain the difference Praziquantel - 30/10/2012 07:01:53 PM 715 Views
Re: Still doesn't explain the difference fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:21:00 PM 794 Views
Yes that totally makes sense Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM 890 Views
Thank you! *NM* Tor - 30/10/2012 10:19:15 AM 414 Views
That's not what happened... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM 833 Views
Re: That's not what happened... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:15:57 PM 768 Views
Who said it would? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:44:17 PM 778 Views
let's not mix up "random" and "representative" darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:28:09 PM 844 Views
Doesn't mean RJ applied it to his series Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:23:29 AM 853 Views
But of course he did.. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:13:07 PM 887 Views
I hate to get into these things HousealThor - 29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM 925 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... Shannow - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM 899 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed HousealThor - 29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM 907 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM* fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM 484 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic... Shannow - 29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM 826 Views
You're pathetic... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM 759 Views
The quote isn't specific Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM 874 Views
Its highly specific... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:15:38 PM 717 Views
Yet neither of them are at full potential and at least equal a Forsaken darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:45:24 PM 1377 Views
Honestly! darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:07:37 AM 812 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed Tor - 29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM 828 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 777 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM 955 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM 886 Views
Are you sure about that? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM 879 Views
Re: Are you sure about that? Tor - 30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM 797 Views
That doesn't seem a coherent narrative to me TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 04:26:25 PM 1118 Views
Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM 891 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM 770 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM 910 Views
Re: We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers TheCrownless - 31/10/2012 12:30:52 AM 864 Views
A handful of examples are all we have and we have proof that an extremely strong Channeler darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 02:58:57 AM 759 Views
you're confusing 2 things Zaphod - 30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM 1037 Views
+1 *NM* Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:17:07 AM 910 Views
Re: you're confusing 2 things Simon - 30/10/2012 09:21:39 AM 889 Views
Not true... Shannow - 30/10/2012 11:49:57 AM 875 Views
One thing HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM 857 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM 867 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes