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I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... Shannow Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM
In any case, for those who aren’t aware, this thread is based on RJ’s statement that channeler strength in WoT can be represented by a Bell Curve distribution. For those unfamiliar with statistics, a Bell Curve is a perfectly normal distribution, peaking at the average and petering off to either side in a perfectly symmetrical manner.

A Bell Curve by definition means that the distance from the weakest to the strongest channeler is intersected at exactly the 50% mark by the mean (the average channeler). Any skewing of the distribution would mean that the term “Bell Curve” cannot be applied to the distribution. Instead, it would then be either a positively or negatively skewed distribution. But not a Bell Curve.

So the basic rule is that the average channeler has to be exactly half as strong as the strongest channeler. Or to put it differently, a channeler x standard deviations away from the mean on the weak side, must be exactly as far from the mean as a channeler x standard deviations away on the strong side.


And I don't really want to draw any conclusions about the channeling population, but your logic is completely off.

A simple illustration: Any normal distribution is a bell curve, regardless of its standard deviation. So take a normal distribution with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 4.1. That means that 9 lies within two standard deviations of the mean, and 1 clearly isn't 50% of 9.


I like what you're saying, and have considered it before as a potential solution, but my problem is that you don't get negative strength in the One Power. Hence, if 1 is the mean, as in your example, and if 4.1 is the standard deviation, how do you get to 1 standard deviation below the mean? Not to mention 2 or 3 standard deviations below the mean?

Because you almost immediately hit zero strength in the Power.

Hence my view that if it's a true Bell Curve, then the lower end of the distribution can not approach zero, since we are talking about the channeler population here, not the total human population. And even the weakest channeler (which is Morgase) has a strength greater than zero.
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The Bell Curve revisited Shannow - 29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM 1499 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited Tor - 29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM 897 Views
That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM 1469 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM 902 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:40:27 AM 748 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:42:57 AM 747 Views
Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:45:07 AM 832 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:49:49 AM 735 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:56:37 AM 813 Views
It's only as skewed as it seems when you make the assumption that the Forsaken darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 04:34:11 AM 1032 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM 815 Views
Response to a few of your poorly researched points... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:31:17 PM 762 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM 777 Views
Exactly... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:39:30 PM 774 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM 792 Views
Excellent point. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM 821 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this Tor - 29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM 723 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM 699 Views
Re: Again I don't argue that genetics play no role Tor - 30/10/2012 07:07:17 AM 725 Views
I don't think it plays much role in the plot darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:17:55 PM 877 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM 737 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM 676 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength? Tor - 29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM 682 Views
Absolutely no reason... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM 783 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason... Tor - 30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM 685 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM 771 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random. Tor - 30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM 693 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM 708 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! Tor - 30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 707 Views
Go read a stats text will you? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM 702 Views
Done Tor - 31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM 1374 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM 963 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM 732 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 11/11/2012 07:14:48 PM 661 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:33:59 PM 1402 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM 926 Views
Seriously? I went and looked at some statistics books, and you won't even reply? Tor - 01/11/2012 12:13:49 PM 741 Views
Still nothing? Tor - 10/11/2012 03:33:15 PM 716 Views
Still doesn't explain the difference Praziquantel - 30/10/2012 07:01:53 PM 647 Views
Re: Still doesn't explain the difference fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:21:00 PM 731 Views
Yes that totally makes sense Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM 822 Views
Thank you! *NM* Tor - 30/10/2012 10:19:15 AM 380 Views
That's not what happened... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM 745 Views
Re: That's not what happened... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:15:57 PM 707 Views
Who said it would? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:44:17 PM 712 Views
let's not mix up "random" and "representative" darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:28:09 PM 776 Views
Doesn't mean RJ applied it to his series Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:23:29 AM 787 Views
But of course he did.. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:13:07 PM 807 Views
I hate to get into these things HousealThor - 29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM 851 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... Shannow - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM 809 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed HousealThor - 29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM 834 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM* fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM 413 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic... Shannow - 29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM 753 Views
You're pathetic... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM 695 Views
The quote isn't specific Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM 815 Views
Its highly specific... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:15:38 PM 646 Views
Yet neither of them are at full potential and at least equal a Forsaken darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:45:24 PM 1300 Views
Honestly! darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:07:37 AM 745 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed Tor - 29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM 751 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 689 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM 891 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM 816 Views
Are you sure about that? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM 817 Views
Re: Are you sure about that? Tor - 30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM 722 Views
That doesn't seem a coherent narrative to me TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 04:26:25 PM 1022 Views
Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM 829 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM 713 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM 842 Views
Re: We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers TheCrownless - 31/10/2012 12:30:52 AM 793 Views
A handful of examples are all we have and we have proof that an extremely strong Channeler darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 02:58:57 AM 630 Views
you're confusing 2 things Zaphod - 30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM 891 Views
+1 *NM* Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:17:07 AM 821 Views
Re: you're confusing 2 things Simon - 30/10/2012 09:21:39 AM 790 Views
Not true... Shannow - 30/10/2012 11:49:57 AM 803 Views
One thing HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM 780 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM 800 Views
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