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Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor Send a noteboard - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM

So, I went and had a look at some statistics texts, and here are a few juicy quotes (emphasis mine):

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Self-selection bias is the problem that very often results when survey respondents are allowed to decide entirely for themselves whether or not they want to participate in a survey. To the extent that respondents' propensity for participating in the study is correlated with the substantive topic the researchers are trying to study, there will be self-selection bias in the resulting data.


Nice. But why did you ignore the very next sentence?

In most instances, self-selection will lead to biased data, as the respondents who choose to participate will not well represent the entire target population.


That's exactly what I've been saying. A self-selected sample is not representative of the entire population. 1000 women is too low a sample number when they're self-selected. So you see a bias in one way. The very next 1000 self selected women from the same area might have been biased in the opposite way, or biased even more towards weak women. The point is, in a non-random sample, you'll almost certainly see bias. There is no one reason for this.

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A voluntary response sample consists of people who choose themselves by responding to a general appeal. Voluntary response samples are biased because people with strong opinions, especially negative opinions, are most likely to respond.

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This is the case with political poll. In epidemiology (which the current case is closer to, since channeling the OP is not an opinion, it is a genetic and metaphysical predisposition), it is not the strong opinions of respondents that leads to sample skewing.

A sample of convenience is a sample that is not drawn by a well-defined random method. The big problem with samples of convenience is that they may differ systematically in some way from the population. For this reason, samples of convenience should not be used, except in situations where it is not feasible to draw a random sample. When it is necessary to draw a sample of convenience, it is important to think carefully about all the ways in which the sample might differ systematically from the population. If it is reasonable to believe that no important systematic difference exists, then it may be acceptable to treat the sample of convenience as if it were a simple random sample.


Ok, so the point of these quotes was to back up what I've been saying all along, and which you have protested, i.e., that there has to be a specific mechanism which links the probability that a person will volunteer for the test with the characteristic you are testing for there to be a self-selection bias. Personally, I prefer arguments and reason instead of the authority of a book, but since you asked for books, I guess you don't.

But there is reason to know a systematic difference exists. Its not a matter of belief here. We know for a certain fact that this non-random population is showing characteristics markedly different from the norm.


I guess this sums it up. If you are now saying that there is a reason to assume a systematic bias in this particular sample, then I can't argue with that, except to say that in my opinion it seems more likely that RJ made a mistake with one of the two numbers, rather than adding a massive bias to those novices as a plot device.

However, I would be very interested (and I'm not being sarcastic, I would actually be very interested) to hear what you think the mechanism of the bias would be.

Your thought experiment is so stupid I'm at a loss for words. It is not remotely comparable because the probability of a coin landing heads or tails is decided at that very moment, and depends on the property of the coin, not the person tossing it!


But in the other post, you agreed that strength in channeling is essentially a random number assigned at birth, unknown until you are tested. I fail to see how this is different from a bunch of people flipping a coin, marking the result without looking at it, and then at some later point volunteering to have their coin tested.

Edit: Fixed a missing quote-tag
Fram kamerater!
This message last edited by Tor on 11/11/2012 at 08:45:42 PM
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The Bell Curve revisited - 29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM 1499 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited - 29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM 897 Views
That's incorrect... - 29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM 1469 Views
Re: That's incorrect... - 29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM 902 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... - 29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM 816 Views
Response to a few of your poorly researched points... - 29/10/2012 02:31:17 PM 762 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... - 29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM 778 Views
Exactly... - 29/10/2012 02:39:30 PM 775 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this - 29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM 793 Views
Excellent point. - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM 822 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this - 29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM 723 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role - 30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM 699 Views
Re: Again I don't argue that genetics play no role - 30/10/2012 07:07:17 AM 725 Views
I don't think it plays much role in the plot - 30/10/2012 03:17:55 PM 878 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength - 30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM 738 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population? - 29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM 677 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength? - 29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM 682 Views
Absolutely no reason... - 30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM 784 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason... - 30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM 685 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not. - 30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM 772 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random. - 30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM 693 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! - 30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM 708 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! - 30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 707 Views
Go read a stats text will you? - 30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM 703 Views
Done - 31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM 1374 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM 963 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM 732 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 07:14:48 PM 661 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 08:33:59 PM 1402 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM 927 Views
Still nothing? - 10/11/2012 03:33:15 PM 716 Views
Still doesn't explain the difference - 30/10/2012 07:01:53 PM 649 Views
Re: Still doesn't explain the difference - 10/11/2012 10:21:00 PM 731 Views
Yes that totally makes sense - 30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM 822 Views
Thank you! *NM* - 30/10/2012 10:19:15 AM 380 Views
That's not what happened... - 30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM 745 Views
Re: That's not what happened... - 30/10/2012 02:15:57 PM 707 Views
Who said it would? - 30/10/2012 02:44:17 PM 712 Views
let's not mix up "random" and "representative" - 30/10/2012 05:28:09 PM 777 Views
Doesn't mean RJ applied it to his series - 30/10/2012 08:23:29 AM 787 Views
But of course he did.. - 30/10/2012 02:13:07 PM 808 Views
I hate to get into these things - 29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM 851 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM 809 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed - 29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM 834 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM* - 29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM 413 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic... - 29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM 753 Views
You're pathetic... - 30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM 695 Views
The quote isn't specific - 30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM 815 Views
Its highly specific... - 30/10/2012 02:15:38 PM 646 Views
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Honestly! - 30/10/2012 02:07:37 AM 746 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed - 29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM 751 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it - 30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 689 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? - 30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM 891 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? - 30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM 816 Views
Are you sure about that? - 30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM 818 Views
Re: Are you sure about that? - 30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM 723 Views
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Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola - 30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM 830 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola - 30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM 714 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers - 30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM 843 Views
you're confusing 2 things - 30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM 892 Views
+1 *NM* - 30/10/2012 09:17:07 AM 822 Views
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Not true... - 30/10/2012 11:49:57 AM 803 Views
One thing - 30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM 782 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value - 30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM 801 Views

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