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I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... Shannow Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM
In any case, for those who aren’t aware, this thread is based on RJ’s statement that channeler strength in WoT can be represented by a Bell Curve distribution. For those unfamiliar with statistics, a Bell Curve is a perfectly normal distribution, peaking at the average and petering off to either side in a perfectly symmetrical manner.

A Bell Curve by definition means that the distance from the weakest to the strongest channeler is intersected at exactly the 50% mark by the mean (the average channeler). Any skewing of the distribution would mean that the term “Bell Curve” cannot be applied to the distribution. Instead, it would then be either a positively or negatively skewed distribution. But not a Bell Curve.

So the basic rule is that the average channeler has to be exactly half as strong as the strongest channeler. Or to put it differently, a channeler x standard deviations away from the mean on the weak side, must be exactly as far from the mean as a channeler x standard deviations away on the strong side.


And I don't really want to draw any conclusions about the channeling population, but your logic is completely off.

A simple illustration: Any normal distribution is a bell curve, regardless of its standard deviation. So take a normal distribution with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 4.1. That means that 9 lies within two standard deviations of the mean, and 1 clearly isn't 50% of 9.


I like what you're saying, and have considered it before as a potential solution, but my problem is that you don't get negative strength in the One Power. Hence, if 1 is the mean, as in your example, and if 4.1 is the standard deviation, how do you get to 1 standard deviation below the mean? Not to mention 2 or 3 standard deviations below the mean?

Because you almost immediately hit zero strength in the Power.

Hence my view that if it's a true Bell Curve, then the lower end of the distribution can not approach zero, since we are talking about the channeler population here, not the total human population. And even the weakest channeler (which is Morgase) has a strength greater than zero.
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The Bell Curve revisited Shannow - 29/10/2012 09:44:09 AM 1703 Views
Re: The Bell Curve revisited Tor - 29/10/2012 10:21:27 AM 1064 Views
That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:26:49 AM 1641 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:36:32 AM 1024 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:40:27 AM 887 Views
Re: That's incorrect... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:42:57 AM 875 Views
Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:45:07 AM 983 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Tor - 29/10/2012 10:49:49 AM 867 Views
Re: Hehe...There are a few disputing it vocally. Whether they're in their right mind, well... Shannow - 29/10/2012 10:56:37 AM 953 Views
It's only as skewed as it seems when you make the assumption that the Forsaken darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 04:34:11 AM 1210 Views
RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:11:19 PM 969 Views
Response to a few of your poorly researched points... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:31:17 PM 916 Views
Re: RJ the physicist didn't know math, so that Shannow could be right... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:37:33 PM 907 Views
Exactly... Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:39:30 PM 901 Views
there are dozens of reasons for this darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:18:18 PM 923 Views
Excellent point. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:24:37 PM 961 Views
Re: there are dozens of reasons for this Tor - 29/10/2012 09:07:35 PM 875 Views
Again I don't argue that genetics play no role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:57:24 AM 858 Views
Re: Again I don't argue that genetics play no role Tor - 30/10/2012 07:07:17 AM 856 Views
I don't think it plays much role in the plot darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:17:55 PM 1013 Views
Once again just so,we are clear on my stance with Genetics and Strength darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:27:11 PM 869 Views
That the 1000 Novices aren't a random sample of the population? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:47 PM 814 Views
And why would it be biased towards those with lower strength? Tor - 29/10/2012 09:11:25 PM 830 Views
Absolutely no reason... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:35:35 AM 924 Views
Re: Absolutely no reason... Tor - 30/10/2012 06:43:54 AM 826 Views
Only if it was a random sampling. Which this is not. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:58:34 PM 921 Views
That's exactly the point. I want you to explain why it wasn't random. Tor - 30/10/2012 02:14:59 PM 846 Views
It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:43:03 PM 845 Views
Re: It wasn't random because it was a self-selected sample! Tor - 30/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 842 Views
Go read a stats text will you? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:54:16 PM 833 Views
Done Tor - 31/10/2012 09:34:11 AM 1612 Views
You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:14:19 PM 1127 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 11:37:16 AM 947 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... fionwe1987 - 11/11/2012 07:14:48 PM 805 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:33:59 PM 1615 Views
Re: You seem to have perfected whining to a Talent... Tor - 11/11/2012 08:43:19 PM 1189 Views
Seriously? I went and looked at some statistics books, and you won't even reply? Tor - 01/11/2012 12:13:49 PM 944 Views
Still nothing? Tor - 10/11/2012 03:33:15 PM 965 Views
Still doesn't explain the difference Praziquantel - 30/10/2012 07:01:53 PM 782 Views
Re: Still doesn't explain the difference fionwe1987 - 10/11/2012 10:21:00 PM 869 Views
Yes that totally makes sense Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:07:16 AM 964 Views
Thank you! *NM* Tor - 30/10/2012 10:19:15 AM 442 Views
That's not what happened... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:01:52 PM 910 Views
Re: That's not what happened... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:15:57 PM 838 Views
Who said it would? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:44:17 PM 861 Views
let's not mix up "random" and "representative" darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:28:09 PM 910 Views
Doesn't mean RJ applied it to his series Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:23:29 AM 929 Views
But of course he did.. fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:13:07 PM 970 Views
I hate to get into these things HousealThor - 29/10/2012 05:45:50 PM 992 Views
I would love for you to be right, because it would solve all our problems, but 0 is the challenge... Shannow - 29/10/2012 07:56:34 PM 995 Views
In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed HousealThor - 29/10/2012 08:20:52 PM 986 Views
Overwhelm Lanfear, not match her. *NM* fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:26:09 PM 514 Views
Truth is, Moiraine was being overly optimistic... Shannow - 29/10/2012 08:39:17 PM 892 Views
You're pathetic... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:20:01 AM 829 Views
The quote isn't specific Sidious - 30/10/2012 08:32:36 AM 939 Views
Its highly specific... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:15:38 PM 782 Views
Yet neither of them are at full potential and at least equal a Forsaken darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:45:24 PM 1444 Views
Honestly! darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:07:37 AM 883 Views
Re: In the truest sense, you are probably right that it is skewed Tor - 29/10/2012 09:10:27 PM 897 Views
Lots of people mean perfectly normal distribution when they say it HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:25:35 PM 844 Views
Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:04:01 AM 1032 Views
Re: Couldn't the Towers method of obtaining Aes Sedai be to blame? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:33:44 AM 955 Views
Are you sure about that? TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 12:03:43 PM 953 Views
Re: Are you sure about that? Tor - 30/10/2012 12:19:34 PM 864 Views
That doesn't seem a coherent narrative to me TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 04:26:25 PM 1201 Views
Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:16:40 PM 970 Views
Re: Sharina did not have the Spark, nor did Nicola TheCrownless - 30/10/2012 05:54:41 PM 842 Views
We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 10:33:55 PM 985 Views
Re: We do not know if Cadsuane or any of the Forsaken are Sparkers TheCrownless - 31/10/2012 12:30:52 AM 937 Views
A handful of examples are all we have and we have proof that an extremely strong Channeler darius_sedai - 31/10/2012 02:58:57 AM 825 Views
you're confusing 2 things Zaphod - 30/10/2012 04:27:32 AM 1126 Views
+1 *NM* Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:17:07 AM 993 Views
Re: you're confusing 2 things Simon - 30/10/2012 09:21:39 AM 985 Views
Not true... Shannow - 30/10/2012 11:49:57 AM 949 Views
One thing HousealThor - 30/10/2012 05:23:17 PM 930 Views
That's the problem. The BC RJ has "built" has a minimum and a maximum value darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 05:48:55 PM 946 Views
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